Gartner Predicts Only 5% of Organizations Will Make at Least 10% of Supply Chain Planning Decisions Autonomously by 2030

By 2030, only 5% of organizations implementing some form of supply chain planning automation will make at least 10% of their planning decisions autonomously, according to Gartner, Inc., a business and technology insights company.While organizations are already making substantial investments in automation and AI, the progression toward autonomous planning will remain gradual due to the continued need for human oversight and persistent data, technology and organizational readiness challenges.

“Spending millions on supply chain planning automation can expand technical capabilities, but investment alone does not create AI readiness,” said Buse Aras, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “Leaders must establish the necessary decision, talent and technology foundations before scaling AI-enabled planning. Otherwise, they risk funding technology that does not improve the planning decisions that matter most.”

A Gartner survey found that 83% of surveyed organizations had spent at least $3 million on automating supply chain planning, including AI, with 51% spending between $3 million and $10 million. The survey was conducted from November 11 through December 18, 2025, among 243 senior leaders globally at organizations with annual revenue of at least $500 million.

The pace of planning autonomy will depend on the type, complexity and risk of each planning decision. Routine operational decisions, including replenishment and order prioritization, offer greater automation potential, while strategic decisions involving network design and inventory policy will continue to require human judgment. Organizations must also address data quality, decision ownership, workforce capabilities and technology architecture before entrusting more decisions to AI.Gartner analysts said that the roles and competencies of planners will need to evolve as organizations move from AI-supported to AI-automated planning. Supply chain planning leaders must proactively redesign roles to transition planners away from being “data administrators” and toward becoming “plan orchestrators” who collaborate throughout the value chain (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Planners’ Competencies Evolution With AI Deployment

Source: Gartner (September 2026)

The Path to Autonomy

To generate value from current investments while building toward greater future autonomy, Gartner recommends that supply chain planning leaders:

Start with the planning decision. Classify priority decisions as strategic, tactical or operational, define the desired business outcome, and determine whether AI should support, augment or automate each decision based on its value, complexity, risk and need for human judgment.

Establish the foundations required for each use case. Assess the workforce skills, data quality, governance and technology capabilities needed to execute the decision effectively. Use flexible architectures that allow AI and automation capabilities to complement existing transactional and planning systems.

Measure decision improvement, not technology deployment. Track whether planners use new capabilities as intended, reduce manual workarounds, avoid reverting to legacy tools and improve decision effectiveness in their daily planning routines.

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